The Pending Coalescence: Our Seemingly Interminable Wait for Sentient Robots
I'll be honest - it is getting difficult to wait for sentient robots. I've been waiting to see them for what seems like a long time.
Consider the 1926 silent film "Metropolis," in which sentient robots were depicted in unique and exciting ways nearly a century ago. This shows that sentient robots have occupied our collective imagination for quite a while. After Metropolis came a huge number of fictitious movie robots that had human attributes - Robby the Robot, B-9 from Lost in Space, Gog, C-3PO, iRobot, The Matrix and on and on and on....
And yet, we still don't have any Blade Runner-esque androids in our midst in 2016. Inconceivable. Inexcusable.
While my frustration may seem like a frivolity (and it is), a certain amount of true angst may be merited - because we are so close to a sentient robot at this very moment. The ingredients of sentient robots are all in place, but they have yet to come together. What we have now is a pending coalescence of the three types of robots that exist today.
Let's have a look at the three kinds of robots that must come together to yield the first truly sentient robot....
Faceless Brilliance
The first category are those robots that are strong on Artificial Intelligence, but weak on presentation. The famed IBM-created AI named Watson that competed convincingly on Jeopardy! is an excellent example. More recently, there is the AI that is a champion at the board game "Go." These cognitive computers are great examples of the amazing leaps forward of robotic minds that are taking place right now. Despite being both exciting and very relevant, these robots are merely voices and commands without a physical presence. They are the faceless brilliance of today's robotics revolution.
Lumbering Lunkheads
The second category of robots are those that are incredibly impressive on corporeal presence, but virtually absent of intellect. Watch this video of Atlas, a Boston Dynamics robot, walking through a stretch of New England snow. While a seemingly simple task, the engineering required to make this feasible is impressive. Teaching a robot not to tip over is a huge accomplishment.
But once Atlas stands still, we could walk up to this robot and ask it a question. We would only receive a cold, iron stare of silence. These robots are the lumbering idiots of the robotics community.
Expressive Parrots
The third category of robots are those that are able to mimic human features and attributes, especially on the facial area. Consider the humanoid robots that we are starting to see, which have the ability to mimic human facial features in an uncanny way. Sophia is an excellent example of this phenomenon, with her ability to do face mapping and imitation. As you can see in the video (min. 1:30), the creepy factor remains very high on robots like Sophia. This is largely due to the fact that they are getting so close to a human appearance. Despite how engaging and unsettling it is to see a robot mimic human features, these are really the robotic equivalent of highly-expressive parrots. Nothing more.
When Will They Get Here?
Now let's consider a robot that merged the intellect of Watson, the locomotion of Atlas, and the mannerisms of Sophia. How much more exciting would it be to have such a sentient robot win a chess match in the future?
Let's consider a robot of that sort, named Coale, who would play a chess match in the near future.
- Picture the sentient robot Coale walking into a room with a confident smile, waving to the press that was assembled.
- Coale pulls the chair away from the table on which the chess match will occur. It then sits down and gives its (likely) Russian opponent a cold stare mixed with a wry smile. They shake hands. Only one hand has any warmth.
- As the match progresses, there is evidence of some frustration. The robot occasionally shakes its head and lets out a faux sigh from its mouth. Coale's chess moves progress confidently, despite some concerns about the overall strategy.....
- As the robot wins the game, it leans forward and whispers, "In your face." It then walks over to the applauding press to answer questions. When asked what it feels like to be the first victorious sentient robot to beat a human at chess, Coale smiles and says, "Igor was a convincing opponent, but we robots don't really have much competition from those of you in the 'bag of bones' community." The press laughs. Coale chuckles in-kind.
How much more exciting will it be when the developments in robotic cognition, robotic locomotion and robotic human expressiveness all come together in a single robot?
Impacts to Business
While there are some signs that this kind of robot exists, it truly has not been created yet. When it does, that will be an exciting day! It will revolutionize our labor force, help with elder-care, impact how we do search-and-rescue, and so many other things. The way our businesses will run will change when sentient robots finally get here. Fields will be filled with crop-picking robots. Security guards will be posted outside of our places of business, watching with robotic eyes. Our newborns and elderly citizens will have around-the-clock helpers and caregivers who won't be irritable or tired, and won't have the ability to impart germs and viruses like a human would. In short, what jobs humans will do in the future will change utterly based upon the availability of sentient robots.
And if you listen to Elon Musk and his ilk, the arrival of sentient robots may also lead to humanity's downfall (I don't agree).
In short, all of the pieces of the sentient robot puzzle exist - let's bring them all together. Now.
Exciting times ahead!